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 Does anyone remember what winter
used to be like? Not the imitation of winter we had this season, or
winters of the past few years when storms of varying
magnitude were interspersed with spells of mild weather, but the
real winter weather we used to have. You may recall: the lake and
pond surfaces froze solid, as did many of the small streams, and
snow cover was of an extended duration. Below zero temperatures
were, if not commonplace, something which occurred every year. Not
so anymore. Temperatures in the past three months have been
significantly above what we consider to be normal, based on
historical data. Last winter was similar to this one. In the
short term, mild winters are certainly less trying to endure than
those of the past. It is just that they make me uneasy.
The
National Academy of Sciences released a study that strongly
reinforces the growing scientific consensus that climate change is
real and serious. In its new report entitled "Reconciling
Observations of Global Temperature Change," the NAS
convincingly clarifies apparent discrepancies between surface and
satellite records of global temperature. In the past, skeptics
frequently used the discordant conclusions from the different data
sets to dismiss the veracity of global warming. The NAS report puts
this particular controversy to rest. Several large newspapers have
reported this story, but most downplay the human influence on this
warming trend and say nothing about the need for mitigation of
greenhouse gas emissions. The NAS study confirms that
observed global warming is "undoubtedly real" and is
substantially greater than the average rate of warming during the
twentieth century. The report adds further weight to the call for
policymakers to act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from
fossil fuel consumption. The NAS report can be found on
the web at http://www.nas.edu. Unfortunately,
disregarding this effect is probably not prudent. Officials with the
National Weather Service and Britain's Meteorological Office, in an
open letter published December 23, 1999, concluded that
"Ignoring climate change will surely be the most costly of all
possible choices, for us and our children." These costs will be
in increased risk to human health, the expansion of deserts, the
disruption of agriculture, a rise in sea level of anywhere from 6 to
37.5 inches above the current level, with persistent coastal
flooding, and a series of secondary impacts on human welfare and the
economy among others. All of us must accept some of the
responsibility for creating this environmental effect, and for
mitigating it. The manner in which we have allowed residential and
commercial development to sprawl ever further from the city centers
and the reliance we have developed on fuel-guzzling vehicles are but
two areas which pointedly cry out for popular action. In a time of
increasing indifference to what we perceive to be bad news on many
fronts, complacency in this case carries a high
price.
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